Clarksville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS64 KOHX 101846
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1246 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Showers continue to move through portions of Middle TN this
morning and are expected to continue through the afternoon. A more
organized band of showers and thunderstorms still looks favorable
to move from W to E across Middle TN later this afternoon and into
the evening. Not a whole lot of change in thinking from previous
discussion. Current mesoanalysis supports previous thinking of
building CAPE through the afternoon, moderate shear, and elevated
PWs. Lapse rates still remain the limiting factor for any severe
weather as we go into the afternoon, remaining around 6 C/km or
less. This being said, we will still need to monitor any storms
for potential over performing in areas of elevated CAPE and
maximized shear.

The main threat looks to be excessive rainfall, in particular
counties W of I-65 and S of I-24 where whole basins have received
over 2 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Additionally,
there could be some stronger winds associated with any storms
that manage to over perform and establish a stronger updraft.

Come Monday morning, shower activity will be over E TN allowing
for northerly winds and sunny/drying conditions for us.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

The main action through this period still looks to be a front that
moves through beginning Wednesday evening. Taking a look at the
ensembles, there is significant differences between the ENS, GEFS,
and GEPS. This is mainly revolving around how strong the front
will be when it moves through. There is decent agreement with
arrival time (Wednesday evening), but due to issues resolving the
parent low placement and strength, the ENS brings in quite a bit
of QPF while the GEFS has less than half the amount while the
GEPS falls somewhere in the middle.

Ultimately, this only really impacts total rainfall amounts across
the mid state as there doesn`t seem to be much of a severe threat
with this front. For now, keeping the forecast somewhere in the
middle ground between the GEFS and EFS with total rainfall
amounts around 0.50 inch or less.

Once the front moves out, a more seasonal airmass moves in for
the late week, but honestly, still slightly above average with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Next chances of rain look
to arrive by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Rain showers will continue to impact BNA/MQY/CKV through this
evening with MVFR/IFR conditions. TSRA are also possible late
afternoon into the evening but chance has decreased. For CSV/SRB,
VCSH are anticipated until late evening when SHRA with MVFR/IFR
vis/cigs will move over those terminals. All airports will return
to VFR overnight into early Monday morning. Gusty south winds up
to 20 knots this afternoon will decrease and veer to southwest
this evening, then become northwest overnight with fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  70  46  64 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    49  68  43  61 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     54  67  41  62 /  90   0   0   0
Columbia       55  71  44  64 /  80   0   0   0
Cookeville     56  67  43  61 /  90   0   0   0
Jamestown      54  66  42  60 /  90   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  71  44  65 /  80   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   56  70  44  65 /  80   0   0   0
Waverly        50  68  44  62 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Shamburger